WASHINGTON – When former president and 2024 election candidate Donald Trump claims the justice system wants to jail him, he’s not just protesting the ongoing hush money trial.
Trump is also preparing voters for the possibility of a guilty verdict.
At political rallies, on social media, and before reporters gathered at the New York courthouse, Trump’s attacks on the trial are designed in part to persuade voters to ignore a bad verdict, according to aides, legal analysts, and a review of your comments.
“The New York court system has been abused,” Trump told reporters on Friday. “The whole world is watching.”
Trump is accused of improperly influencing the 2016 presidential election by paying hush money to women, trying to prevent them from publicizing their sexual relationships. He has pleaded not guilty.
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Trump targets moderate voters
Trump has not explicitly said he expects a guilty verdict and occasionally expresses public optimism about the outcome of the trial. “A lot of good things are happening in this case,” the former said Thursday.
But he has spent much more time alleging political bias on the part of the judge, prosecutors, and jury, and arguing without evidence that his political opponents will do anything to put him behind bars.
Trump and his supporters have also predicted that a guilty verdict would be overturned on appeal, a step that would not be necessary if he is acquitted or if there is a hung jury.
Legal experts said Trump has no choice but to prepare for a guilty verdict, given how it could affect his campaign against President Joe Biden.
![What Happens if Trump is Found Guilty? Voters Being Prepared for the Worst GRAND RAPIDS, MICHIGAN - APRIL 02: Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign event on April 02, 2024 in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Trump delivered a speech which his campaign has called "Biden's Border Bloodbath", as recent polls have shown that immigration and the situation at the U.S. Southern border continue to be top issues on voters' minds going into the November election. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)](https://i0.wp.com/www.usatoday.com/gcdn/authoring/authoring-images/2024/04/04/USAT/73206708007-gty-2133664942.jpg?resize=660%2C441&ssl=1)
In claiming the trial is unfair, Trump’s targets include moderate and independent voters who have long been skeptical of his behavior.
“Your base will believe everything you say,” said Bradley P. Moss, a Washington, D.C., attorney who specializes in government transparency issues. “The issue is the independents.”
Trump appeals to New Jersey
Trump’s latest effort to prepare his supporters for bad legal news comes Saturday at a campaign rally in Wildwood, New Jersey.
This will be Trump’s first campaign rally since an event at the airport in Freeland, Michigan, on May 1, where he spoke at length about his legal concerns.
While discussing the ongoing trial in New York, Trump said “We haven’t made a decision here, but the decision here can probably only be one thing, I guess… because… this whole thing – it’s a rigged deal; it’s a rigged deal.”
Trump also compared the hush money trial to major civil cases he lost, one for bank loan fraud and two others for defamation and sexual abuse of writer E. Jean Carroll.
In total, civil courts have ordered Trump to pay more than $500 million in damages.
“Hopefully, we’ll win all of that easily on appeal,” Trump said at one point in Michigan.
‘Orchestrating Trump’s condemnation’
Trump is also trying to downplay the New York verdict by citing legal analysts who agree with his criticism of the case. Some of them say they believe Trump is doomed to receive a guilty verdict because of the way New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchán is conducting the trial.
In a May 5 Truth Social post, Trump cited comments from former federal prosecutor Andrew McCarthy that described “how Judge Merchan is orchestrating Trump’s conviction.”
Trump also attacks the gag order against him, describing it as an attempt to fix the case. Merchan has found that Trump violated the gag order on ten points for attacks on witnesses and court staff.
![What Happens if Trump is Found Guilty? Voters Being Prepared for the Worst In this handout photo provided by the U.S. Department of Justice, stacks of boxes can be observed in a bathroom and shower in The Mar-a-Lago Club’s Lake Room at former U.S. President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida. Former President Donald Trump has been indicted on 37 felony counts in the special counsel's classified documents probe.](https://i0.wp.com/www.usatoday.com/gcdn/authoring/authoring-images/2024/04/03/USAT/73188673007-gty-1258566797.jpg?resize=660%2C584&ssl=1)
Reading criticism of the case on Friday, Trump said he has to be careful because of the gag order: “If I mention the wrong word, they will come here and take me somewhere to jail because This is what happens to this judge: “He wants to show how tough he is.”
Replay: Trump previously warned of accusations
The political world has seen this kind of courtroom drama before, before Trump was first impeached.
In late 2022 and early 2023, Trump prepared his supporters for the likelihood of indictments and sought to smear them beforehand by denouncing the investigations as politically motivated.
In June 2023, three months after the hush money indictment, Trump told a Republican group in New Hampshire that “others could come” and described them as “election interference.”
Trump ended up charged in four separate criminal cases.
In addition to the hush money case in New York, the former president faces a trial in South Florida on charges of mishandling classified information, and two cases in Washington, D.C., and Georgia on federal and state charges, respectively, of attempting to steal the 2020 election from Biden.
Trump is trying to delay the last three trials until beyond Election Day, Nov. 5. He may succeed, leaving the New York case as the only trial of him during the election campaign.
![What Happens if Trump is Found Guilty? Voters Being Prepared for the Worst Stormy Daniels leaves Manhattan Criminal Court after testifying at former US President Donald Trump's trial for allegedly covering up hush money payments linked to extramarital affairs, in New York City, on May 9, 2024. Adult film actress Daniels returned to the witness stand on Thursday at Trump's hush money trial for another round of grilling by attorneys for the former president.](https://i0.wp.com/www.usatoday.com/gcdn/authoring/authoring-images/2024/05/09/USAT/73633127007-afp-2151610711.jpg?resize=660%2C440&ssl=1)
Politically, the allegations may have helped Trump, at least among the hardcore Republican voters who propelled his campaign toward the 2024 presidential nomination.
Polls and primaries also reflected skepticism toward Trump from moderate and independent voters, some of whom continued to support former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley even after she dropped out of the race.
Political impact
Meanwhile, Trump is bracing for a real verdict in the New York case and a political impact that is unknowable.
Jonathan Turley, a law professor at George Washington University who Trump frequently quotes, said the former president’s complaints about a “weaponized justice system” are legitimate.
Even if Trump is convicted, Turley said, he has a good chance the case will be overturned on appeal because “the whole case is turning into a dumping ground.”
Turley also said that “no one would bet on a New York jury acquitting Trump,” but it’s possible that juries could deadlock and be unable to return any verdicts.
Trump could legitimately celebrate a hung jury as a victory, he said.
Whatever the merits of the case, Moss said Trump has been treated fairly by the judicial system. For example, Moss said any other defendant would now be in jail for violating gag orders as Trump has done. “If anything,” he said, “they’ve treated it with kid gloves.”
Moss also said that while Trump’s base will stick with him no matter what, it’s hard to see how a guilty verdict would help him.
“I don’t see anything good for Trump from this,” Moss said. “The question is how much damage does it cause?”
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