Just 21 days after turning the polls around, Kamala Harris is still ahead of Donald Trump in the race for the White House. Over the past few weeks, the Democratic candidate has been improving her position by tenths, according to the polls compiled by the aggregator according to RealClearPolitics (RCP). He now has a 48.4% chance of winning the presidency, compared to the Republican’s 46.9%.
President Joe Biden had been unable to achieve this margin for almost a year. When he announced his withdrawal as a candidate on July 21, he was 3.1 points behind former President Trump, whose forecasts were barely affected by his appearances in his court cases involving fraud or electoral interference, among others.
Nor does the withdrawal of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or his decision to support the tycoon seem to have had a significant impact on the race. Although there were initial fears of a vote shift, the surveys from The New York Times reveals that it is unclear which candidate would benefit and shows that Kennedy supporters are less likely to vote in November.
Favorite for 11 pollsters and in 23 states
Harris is the favorite for 11 of the 15 pollsters whose results are compiled by RCP, with advantages of up to 4 points. The four houses that give the victory to Trump range between 1 and 3 points. The situation by States also illustrates how close the electoral contest still is: the Democrat would have 23 States in her favor, to a greater or lesser extent, compared to the Republican’s 27 States, according to the polls. forecasts According to The Economist, Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are at stake.
Knowing what’s happening outside means understanding what’s going to happen inside, so don’t miss anything.
KEEP READING
Harris has also established herself as a favorite in Metaculusa community of thousands of users dedicated to predicting and which has the best track record of accuracy. From July 20 to 21, the candidate went from a 17% to a 35% chance of being the next president. Since August 8, she has barely moved from 55%.
Trump, who peaked at 75% before Biden’s withdrawal, is now at 46%.
Follow all the information on the US elections in our weekly newsletter.
Keynote USA
For the Latest News, Follow KeynoteUSA on Twitter Or Google News.
