The Latino vote in Florida is what is called in the Caribbean a rice pudding. That is, something that at first glance lacks linear logic and contains apparent contradictions. Trump’s visit His visit to Hialeah, just outside Miami, last November offers a glimpse into that complex spectrum of voters. “He talked about the mass deportations he plans to carry out if he is re-elected. He also talked about his plans to end Obamacare. The event was packed with Cubans, Venezuelans, and Colombians who praised him. The most curious thing is that this neighborhood has the highest number of zip codes with Hispanics enrolled in Obamacare. It’s a phenomenon we haven’t been able to explain yet,” says Eduardo Gamarra, director of the Latino Public Opinion Forum Program at Florida International University.
The state is now a Republican bastion, and Latin American immigration has a lot to do with it. Cuban exiles began to become naturalized en masse in the 1980s, tired of waiting for the fall of Fidel Castro. Many joined the party of Ronald Reagan, the former president who campaigned saying that “Latinos are Republicans, they just don’t know it yet.” This situation created the opinion matrix that Hispanics are mainly conservative, but polls refute this.
“When asked which party best represents their values, most people identify with the Democratic Party. When asked their opinion on socialism, a minority loves it, another minority hates it, but again the majority is in the middle; and it is the same case when they are asked about capitalism,” says Gamarra, who has been studying the Hispanic vote in the United States for more than 20 years. In fact, Obama’s policy of opening up to Cuba caused the levels of support for the embargo to drop considerably and many Cubans to move closer to the blue party.
The fact that they are immigrants has also made Latinos a population that is inclined to take a more active role in the State. They are a group that is highly receptive to government aid. “It is impressive to hear among many pro-Trump Cuban millionaires the story that the Government never helped them, and the truth is that the White House made them a privileged group. I am not criticizing them, but it is a reality. A lot of money was spent on them. They were given all kinds of subsidies so that they could achieve the success they have today,” adds the expert. The main concern that Hispanics have today is inflation and, secondly, access to medical insurance that guarantees them comprehensive health coverage in a country where health care is exorbitantly expensive. However, these motivations disappear when one enters the arena of the country’s foreign policy.
Florida Hispanics have found in the Republicans’ anti-socialist discourse a way to repair the wounds caused by the region’s authoritarian regimes. Trump’s years in Washington coincided with the state violence unleashed in Nicaragua and Venezuela, and now that he is fighting for re-election, with the mandate of Gustavo Petro in Colombia, the return of Lula in Brazil and the continuation of the Central American exodus. “The usefulness of that discourse is already beginning to run out in Florida. Trump is devoting himself more to insults than to discussing public policy,” says Gamarra. The Republican candidate does not stop accusing Kamala Harris of communistbut surveys indicate that Latinos do not associate social spending with socialism. “When you tell a Hispanic that you are going to give him $25,000 for a down payment on a house, it is a form of economic populism, but it is effective. Harris’ campaign is aimed directly at reducing the cost of living and this is precisely what field research has been telling us about the expectations of the electorate,” adds the professor.
Hispanics from South Florida gather in Miami. Giorgio Viera (EFE)
Earlier this week, the Democratic mayor of Miami-Dade County (the most populous county in the state, with a 70% Latino population), Daniella Levine Cavawas re-elected to office with about 60% of the vote. Her four Republican opponents attacked her with the usual insult, “she’s a communist,” but failed. Even with caution, it is a sign of what could happen in November. Republicans dismiss any state aid as socialism, but two essential programs, Social Security and Medicare, date back to the presidency of Democrat Franklin Delano Roosevelt in the 1930s, which means they are almost a century old and are part of the American welfare state.
Classism as a factor in the Republican vote
Addressing the Hispanic electorate is addressing an extremely diverse group, made up of citizens of different origins, social classes, races and times of arrival in the United States. In this sense, one of the greatest contradictions of the diverse group is reflected in the surveys when they are asked about the immigration of other Latin Americans. The last study A survey of the Latino Public Opinion Forum, which dates back to July of this year, indicates that 23% of Latinos in Florida consider the border and illegal immigration as the main threat to national security. Likewise, 32% agree with mass deportations. “If you have more education and money, a stable life, children who speak English without an accent, you are privileged. In this sense, I have met with leaders of the Venezuelan community who see their recently arrived compatriots as criminals from the Aragua Train. ‘I am not like those people who are arriving now,’ Gamarra says.
The “ladder theory” might explain the paradox. The first to arrive assume themselves to be the good ones and do not want more people to arrive. Once the boat is full, the last one asks to be taken up the ladder. “It is a phenomenon that has occurred among various groups of immigrants, not just Hispanics. We bring forms of racism and classism from our countries and we reproduce them here. In June 1980, a Marielito brought me a crumpled piece of paper with his brother’s address and phone number. My job at that time was to try to reunite families, so I called this person and to my surprise he said: ‘Please tell him that you haven’t found me, he is black and I can’t bring him to live with me in Coral Gables.’ It turns out that they were half-brothers. I told him that I couldn’t do that… Years later, I met this person and asked him if he had managed to reconcile with his brother, and he said that he had never. That gives you an idea of what Miami was like. Many years later, when Obama was a candidate, we held focus groups with Latina women from the state, and in one of them a Colombian woman stood up to say: ‘This country is too serious to elect a black man as president.’ These are two anecdotes that the expert highlights to indicate how these forms of discrimination among the Latino community influence voting.
Donald Trump supporters attend a rally in the Bronx. Spencer Platt (Getty Images)
The emergence of the Kamala Harris phenomenon
The Democratic Party has historically been the party of the white working class. It is also the party of African Americans, and polls are showing that Latinos who followed the movement of whites towards the Republican Party are now rethinking their relationship with the Democratic Party. “Not so much in Florida, but the Mexican and Puerto Rican vote in favor of the Democrats could be decisive in this election. There is a group of wealthy Mexicans in Texas who share a similar view to the Latinos in Florida, but in California, New Mexico and Arizona, the Mexican community is very Democratic. We also saw a movement of African American men towards Trump’s party, but what the polls are telling us is that with the arrival of Kamala Harris all these movements will stop,” says Gamarra about the study they are currently carrying out and whose results will be revealed on October 22.
The image of a biracial candidate The Harris phenomenon has burst into the campaign at a dizzying pace. Against her, Trump has chosen a running mate (JD Vance) who, instead of highlighting his multicultural marriage, has instead identified himself more with Christian nationalism to secure the vote of those who continue to find diversity a threat. “The Harris phenomenon is attracting voters who are in limbo, seduced by Trump’s nationalist discourse but fearing the racism he represents. What will define the election will be the independents in five states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona. But the national vote will be won by Kamala, there is no doubt about that,” concludes the professor.
In the end, what defines the vote is who mobilizes and who doesn’t. 75% of Latinos registered to vote confirm their participation in the November election, in which a high turnout of both anti-Trump and pro-Trump voters is expected. However, in the 2020 and 2022 elections, records indicate that Latinos did not go out to vote. The effective participation rate was around 50%. What will happen in what both candidates have called the election that will mark the lives of Americans? In Florida and the rest of the country, the cards have already been dealt.
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