Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani have been the MVP hot topic for weeks, but let’s not forget about pitching. What about the 2024 Cy Young Award candidates?
The dazzling seasons they have starred in so far Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani steal the spotlight. The players of New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers They are in the conversation, both among baseball experts and fans who exchange predictions over coffee, as the two most serious contenders to win the nomination for Most Valuable Player of the season; however, the name of the game is pitching and we must not forget this conversation. So, let’s review right away who are the arms that are likely to win the Cy Young award in the American and National Leagues this season.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
There is no better closer than Emmanuel Clase in the last three seasons. Getty Images
Emmanuel Classright-handed reliever
When it comes to bringing down the curtain, there is no one better than Emmanuel Clase over the past three seasons. The Dominican led the American League in saves in 2022, with 42; in 2023, with 44 and this year he is the commander in chief of the department, with 38.
If voters don’t give Clase’s work the weight they deserve, then they don’t value much of the modern game. Clase’s bWAR is 3.7 this season (wins above replacement).
The right-hander’s ERA is a career-best 0.60, even more valuable than the 1.29 in 2021 that ranked him fifth among rookies in the American League.
To value only starters or long relievers in the ballots for the Cy Young and to leave aside the closers is to underestimate a statistic that was born in 1969 and that provides a parameter on the reliability of an arm to protect a tight scoreboard.
Clase could become the 10th relief pitcher to win the award. In 1974, Mike Marshall was the first; in 1992, Dennis Eckersley was the first closer in the current era. Another closer to win the Cy Young was Eric Gagné, who did so in 2003.
In addition, Clase is the leader of completed games, with a total of 54; it should be noted that in 2002 (67) and 2023 (65) he was also the leader of the department.
Tarik Skuballeft-handed starter
Left-handers have added value in baseball and Tarik Skubal is no exception. The 27-year-old, born in Hayward, California, is a serious candidate for the Cy Young Award in the American League.
Signed for one year and $2.65 million, Skubal is worth more than his price. Skubal is a pitcher who bases his success on his powerful four-seam fastball, which averages 97 miles per hour. He also combines a changeup, sinker, slider and curveball that travels, on average, 79 miles per hour to home plate.
Skubal is also a viable candidate to win the Triple Crown of Pitching. He is the leader in wins in the Junior Circuit with 15, in exchange for only four losses, which makes him also the leader in won-lost percentage, with .789. He boasts the best ERA, with 2.58. Added to all this is the fact that he is a strikeout pitcher, the leader of the department, with 193 strikeouts.
Shane Bieber He was the last pitcher to win the Pitching Triple Crown, doing so in 2020 with the then Cleveland Indians (8 wins, 1.63 ERA and 122 strikeouts). Skubal would be the first pitcher to accomplish the feat with Detroit since Justin Verlanderwho did it in 2011 (24 wins, 2.40 ERA and 250 strikeouts).
Skubal is looking to post just his second winning season, after going 7-3 in 2023 with a very acceptable ERA of 2.80.
Without a doubt, he is a young pitcher who completely changed his path in the Majors, although in 2023 he finished with 7-3 and 2.80 ERA with 102 strikeouts, those numbers are nothing close to what he boasts today.
What explains Skubal’s improved numbers? For starters, his fastball is more powerful, going from averaging 94.4 mph in 2020 to 95.8 mph in 2023 to 96.8 mph this year. His breaking balls average two miles more than last year, from 84.9 mph to 86.3 mph. His changeup, sinker and split finger have all gained more than an inch, on average, in their vertical break. Simply put, Skubal has more velocity and more movement on his pitches, making him an unreadable pitcher.
In the American League, there is no other arm that can compete with the previous two. If anything, a couple of arms that could appear on the scene, depending on how they close out the season, are Seth Lugo and Corbin Burnes.
Seth Lugo (14-8, 3.19), with Kansas City, is second in wins in the American League and third best in effectiveness, behind Skubal and Ronel Whiteof the Houston Astros.
Lugo is the most notable of the Royals’ pitching staff, who appear to be a step behind in the MVP race (Bobby Witt Jr.) and the Cy Young.
Editorial Selections
Corbin Burnes, right-handed starter
He is having a season that, depending on how it ends, could put him in the conversation as a top contender for the American League Cy Young Award. A terrain that is not unfamiliar to him, as he already won the trophy in 2021.
Burnes is a pitcher who started his career in the Major Leagues with a strong start, after having posted a 7-0 record in 2018; however, it was not enough to be considered Rookie of the Year, as he only worked 38 innings.
For 2021, with the flannel that Milwaukee Brewerswith which he played for six years before arriving in Baltimore in 2024, signed 167 work rolls and was the ERA leader in the Junior Circuit, with 2.43; the FIP was the best with 1.63, a statistic that measures a pitcher’s effectiveness focusing on events over which he himself controls: strikeouts, walks, hits and home runs allowed. He finished the season with the lowest rate of home runs allowed per nine innings (0.4), the highest rate of strikeouts prescribed per nine innings (12.6) and the best strikeout-to-walk differential (6.88).
Burnes is part of baseball’s elite, as he is part of the Orioles’ starting rotation, a team that this year competes fiercely with the Yankees.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Veteran Chris Sale has been unstoppable on the mound this season. Getty Image
Chris Saleleft-handed starter
The veteran pitcher is unstoppable this season. As of Sunday, he holds the National League lead in wins, with 14, in exchange for only three losses (.824, the best win-loss percentage). With a 2.62 ERA he is the leader in effectiveness and with his 191 strikeouts he is in second place in the department’s leadership, which currently belongs to Dylan Ceaseof the San Diego Padreswho is not far behind (193 strikeouts).
Sale has excelled throughout his 14-season career with Chicago White Sox, Boston Red Sox and, more recently, with Atlanta Braves. Sale has never won the Cy Young, despite having had great campaigns; in 2017 he finished second in the voting, behind Corey KluberIn Cleveland, where the bWAR was overwhelming, Sale finished with 5.9 and the Tribe’s pitcher with 7.9.
This year, Sale has based his work on the slider, a pitch that is also a kind of changeup, as it averages 79 miles per hour. If the slider is used 40 percent of the time, then next is his powerful four-seam fastball, a pitch that combines 38 percent of the opportunities and travels at an average of 95 miles per hour, one of the keys is that that fastball averaged 95.2 mph in 2015 and after falling to 93.6 mph in 2021, the velocity has returned for this 2024. Next, 14 percent of the time, a changeup at 87 miles per hour, which he usually throws to the outside for righties and inside for lefties.
Sale is one of the horses in the starting rotation of the Atlanta Braves who are fighting for a ticket to the Wild Card Series in the National League and who maintain the options of reaching the Philadelphia Phillieswho are six games behind in the division. Beyond the Cy Young, which is highly probable and deserved for Sale, the Florida pitcher himself and the Atlanta fans want to transcend the postseason.
Ryan Helsleyright-handed reliever
Without the Cardinals, they go into the ninth inning with a lead, practically assured of victory thanks to the great season of Ryan Helsley, who has recorded 40 saves and leads that department in the National League.
The importance of the closer has already been noted and how, throughout the history of the Cy Young Award, it has been awarded to relievers, something that seeks Emmanuel Class in the American League. In the case of the Old Circuit, the pitcher of the St. Louis Cardinals is a contender.
Right-handed pitcher, 30 years old, signed for only 2024 and 3.8 million dollars. In 2022 he was in the conversation to be the best pitcher in the National League, although he finished in twelfth place.
This year, he appears on the lists as a candidate, but if we put into perspective his 40 saves and 51 closeouts, in addition to his low home run rate allowed (0.5), his numbers are more modest than other seasons in which he was not the Cy Young.
This year he has a more powerful fastball that averages 99.7 mph and surpasses triple digits in every outing, as well as a slider that averages 89 mph and a curveball that he uses only 6 percent of the time with a velocity of 81 mph.
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Zack Wheelerright-handed starter
If we’re going to find two more candidates in the National League, we’ll definitely have to put Phillies starting pitching ace Zack Wheeler on the table.
The right-hander has reached, for the fifth time in his 10-year career, the dozen wins. The 12 games won place him in second position in the National, in a three-way tie (Dylan Cease and Colin Rea). While his ERA of 2.73 also places him in second place, this time alone, only below Sale.
The right-hander has reinvented himself in the center of the diamond. His two fastballs, the four-seam and the two-seam (sinker), have a sustained average of 95 miles per hour. He has stopped using the split finger (8%) and increased the share of the sweeper, which appears 11% of the time and averages 85 miles per hour. Wheeler has accepted fewer hard hits this year, since in 2021 the exit velocity of the balls that hit the barrel was 118 miles per hour, this year it is at 114 miles per hour.
Wheeler was already on the verge of the Cy Young in 2021, when he led in complete games with three and shutouts with two, he was the leader in innings pitched with 213.1, strikeouts with 247 and batters faced with 849. The award went to Corbin Burnesfrom Milwaukee.
Robert Suarezright-handed reliever
Suárez arrived late to the Major Leagues, considering that he made his debut at 31 years old. Just a few weeks ago he was a clear candidate for the National League Cy Young Award, with the resurgence of the San Diego Padres, although it is also true that he has lost steam in recent weeks.
Suárez boasts a winning record of 7-1 and a great ERA of 1.79; however, he is not in any other position where he appears convincing enough to say that he will be the man with the most votes for the Cy Young.
With his 29 saves, he has fallen behind, especially since the Padres have also lost power from the momentum they showed a month ago. Today, Arizona looks better in the NL West, so much so that they are already second in the division, immersed in a six-win streak and three games behind the Dodgers.
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