Antioquia businessmen talk about expectations for the second half of 2024

How will Antioquia fare in the second half of 2024? How much will the economy grow? Will housing conditions improve? What will happen to tourist rentals? Will the region’s infrastructure projects be completed?

According to the criteria of

This and other questions were asked in recent days at the ForoIn event: Situation and perspectives of the economic sectors of Antioquia, held by the Inter-Union Committee of Antioquiawhich brings together 36 unions and five chambers of commerce in the region.

The event featured four panels that addressed topics such as economy, logistics, agriculture and construction-infrastructure, seeking to provide attendees with an overview of the direction of the business sector.

More Read

Millennials and Gen Z are losing their taste for beer

Amundi bets that the peso sell-off is over

Johnson & Johnson raised its offer for baby powder to more than USD 8.2 billion

In the economic field, the executive president of the Chamber of Commerce of Medellin, Lina Vélez de Nicholls, expressed that The outlook for 2024 for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in Antioquia would be around 1.5 percent.

“Although this is a 0.2 percent increase compared to 2023, it is still insufficient for the level of unemployment and for improving the quality of life of all citizens,” said the union leader.

Share

Meeting of regional leaders in Antioquia

Photo: Chamber of Commerce

For his part, Alejandro Olaya, manager of the National Association of Industrialists (Andi) in Antioquia, said that traditional sectors such as manufacturing, commerce, and construction are in negative territory with rates of -3 and -4 percent.

“However, sectors such as agriculture and entertainment are gaining strength and are more vigorous in the region,” added the executive.

At the meeting, it was the real estate and infrastructure sectors that took up much of the discussion, especially because the uncertainty that exists after the fall in the sale of new housing and the challenges brought by tourist or short-term rentals.

In this regard, Eduardo Loaiza Posada, manager of the Colombian Chamber of Construction (Camacol) in Antioquia, referred to the reactivation of the issue of housing subsidies in the country, but criticized the lack of proportionality in these for Antioquia, which represents almost 20 percent of the country’s construction activity.

“Of the nearly 53,000 subsidies last year that were allocated in the country from the Mi Casa Ya program, less than 2,000 arrived in Antioquia and this year we are going for about 1,000, that is, we are going to repeat the same dose. What we have said is that it seems that Antioquia is not on the map of subsidies from the National Government, that is why since the last electoral campaign we suggested to the candidates that it would be very important not to be a ‘subsidy-dependent state’, but that Antioquia had its own subsidy program to help the families of the department with financial closure,” said Loaiza.

What we have said is that it seems that Antioquia was not on the map of the subsidies of the National Government

The union leader stressed that In the department, the goal of 50,000 subsidies has been included in the Development Plan to start the same number of homes in the four-year period, which will help many families to have financial closure in their projects, which is complemented by the decrease in interest rates.

Loaiza also referred to the issue of defaulters, that is, buyers who began to pay for their home and had to back out due to the high payments they had to make due to interest rates.

The Camacol manager explained that people who bought a home two, three or four years ago when the rate was between 8 and 10 percent, But when they delivered that house last year the rate was between 17 and 19 percent, which generates an increase in obligations..

“So the family simply cannot make ends meet, they are required to pay more than they have, plus an excessively high payment compared to what they had when they bought. So what happens? They are denied credit or they simply say ‘no, I’m going to hang myself financially’ and give up on the property,” said Loaiza, who added that when this happens, the property has to be put up for sale again, which affects the project’s ability to reach a financial break-even point.

Construction sector continues to advance gradually.

Photo:iStock

Share

In Antioquia alone there were more than 3,000 withdrawals in the last year, while at the national level the figure was 50,000, according to Camacol.

For his part, Federico Estrada, manager of the Real Estate Exchange of Medellín and Antioquia, said that in the real estate sector, some 55,000 real estate transactions are expected this year.

He expressed that after a complex 2023, Where the sector had a 10 percent drop, there is currently a much smaller slowdown, which is an indicator of a change in trend for the second half of the year..

What we do see is a very high interest in buying homes.

“What we do see is a very high interest in buying homes, a positioning as an investment alternative that remains at the highest levels due to the security and confidence it generates for people, and that housing and real estate maintain the rates of profitability and appreciation that make them attractive. So, in that order of ideas I think we could predict at least a change in trend during the second half of the year to suddenly position a very solid recovery during the year 25.“, said the union leader.

He also referred to the issue of rents, which have shown high costs in recent months in the Aburrá Valley.

From the 9.26 percent allowed by law, rents have risen by just over 8 percent this year.

Photo: Archive / EL TIEMPO

Share

Estrada said that at the end of 2022 and throughout 2023 there was practically no housing to rent, which led to increases of more than 20 percent in rents.

“We now see that supply has normalized and that was the result of the fact that in the last year the same number of new homes that usually enter the market have already entered, remembering that between 18 and 20 percent of what enters goes to the rental market,” said the spokesperson for La Lonja.

Infrastructure works

Regarding regional projects, Loaiza emphasized the works required to expand the José María Córdova airport in Rionegro, since Camacol is part of a technical monitoring group that closely follows the progress of this project.

The union leader recalled that the Civil Aeronautics contracted the review of the Master Plan of said air terminal and that it is currently in the review process.

The airport is operational but there are still delayed flights and long queues.

Photo: Jaiver Nieto

Share

“It should have been reviewed one or two years ago, but well, it is already in the process of being reviewed and will be reviewed throughout the rest of the year and a good part of the first months of next year.“Loaiza added.

The Camacol spokesperson clarified that the aim of this oversight committee is to ensure that nothing is left out of what is needed to ensure that the expansion can be carried out, since the master plan must determine the expansion and growth of the airport in terms of operations and passengers.

“Today a second runway is not required, but it will be required; what is required today is to secure the strips of land that will be needed for expansion and growth,” Loaiza said.

What’s next for trade

For its part, Fenalco Antioquia released its economic log for July, which indicates that inflation in July 2024 in Medellín was 6.93%, slightly higher than the national rate, but lower than that observed in July 2023 (11.9%).

María José Bernal, Executive Director of the entity, said that sales remain stagnant despite the fact that the Copa América helped to prevent the situation from getting worse.

“We found that For the month of July, 76% of entrepreneurs reported having had sales equal to or lower than July 2023, only 24% reported having higher salesalthough June had brought some relief to trade, which had been small, thanks to the Copa América, July lost all this effect and continues to impact trade sales and the performance of the economy. The lack of confidence, lack of listening and the reforms that threaten economic freedom and the good development of companies in the country that are being promoted in the Congress of the Republic by the national Government,” said Bernal.

Share

Photo: Javier Nieto/ El Tiempo

From the entity They highlighted the improvement in sales of cars and motorcycles, driven by a reduction in credit costs..

On the other hand, sales of leather goods and footwear remain in negative territory according to the report of the sector’s merchants.

Regarding confidence levels, according to the Fedesarrollo Consumer Opinion Survey, There is a slight improvement at the national level going from -12.7 to -9.0, while for Medellín it went from -35.3 to -32.1.

“Although the economy is expected to gradually gain momentum in the second half of the year, uncertainty remains over what may happen in terms of

economic, with the announcement of a new tax reform, the Government’s proposal to increase forced investments by banks and the labor reform that will undergo its second debate in Congress,” said Fenalco Antioquia.

ALEXANDER MARKET

Nation journalist

Medellin

Keynote USA

For the Latest News, Follow KeynoteUSA on Twitter Or Google News.